Lant Pritchett, a Visiting Professor in Practice at the LSE School of Public Policy London writing in a Working Paper for the Asian Development Bank Institute (Tokyo) tackles a subject I wrangled tangentially with over COVID looking into the origins of modern democratic systems and the development of the most successful of these, the United […]
Category: Sunday Papers
Seán S. ÓhÉigeartaigh from the Centre for the Future of Intelligenceat the University of Cambridge wonders exactly what rhetoric around an ‘AI race’ actually means? He points out that for there to be a ‘race’ you have to have teams and a sense of where the winning might be. China has never declared themselves to […]
Dr. Yan Liang at the Williamette University (Oregon, U.S.), writing in a Working Paper for the Levy Economics Institute, takes on ‘*The Coming Collapse of China’ narrative. [*Title of a famous book from 2001 coming up for its 25th year of spectacular wrongness. It’s author, Mr. Gordon G. Chang, continues to shamelessly appear in the […]
Catalina Cozariuc of the European University Institute (Florence, Italy) together with Luc Laeven and Alexander A. Popov of the European Central Bank provide a companion piece to last week’s paper on how China can/will develop as an educational powerhouse. Key to achieving educational-superpower status China will need to crank up it’s output of peer-reviewed and […]
Justin Ko, a Juris Doctor graduate of Harvard Law School now working on his PhD, looks more closely at what it would take for China to become a powerhouse in educational excellence. That this is China’s intention is in no doubt as on January 19th this year “..the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China […]
Economic Policy Advisors at the New York Fed. Jeffrey B. Dawson and Hunter L. Clark, writing in a recent ‘Liberty Street Economics’ article (the NY Fed’s blog), summarize the predicament China’s planners now find themselves in. In addition to the economic challenge of COVID China has additionally had to deal with a monster property collapse. […]
The chart shows fixed broadband connections per 100 people and is a good place to start a summary of the paper highlighted today. Nothing makes is clearer how China has stepped up its game in terms of digital connectivity versus the rest of the developed world. Khong Vu and Yiya Lu from the National University […]
I’ve wondered why ‘foreign’ buyers in a housing market, especially if they contribute to higher prices are nearly-always flagged as a bad thing? Surely, I used to think, existing owners get a free-ride benefit, no? Jung Sakong from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in the paper looked over today has helped me understand the […]
Gang Wei (et al.) from the Henan University takes on a subject I’ve often wondered about. Do external supervisors, in the China context, actually do any good in protecting investor’s interests? The researchers chose to concentrate their study on China’s commercial banks and analyzed data from 2005 to 2022, a period of rapid growth, stress […]
David Landry, of the Duke Kunshan University (China) & Johns Hopkins University (USA) has done us a great service by producing for the first time (that I’ve seen something like this anyhow) a comprehensive analysis of where China is digging, and for what, around the world. Every so often stories flare up suggesting China ‘secretly’ […]
Alicia García-Herrero and Jianwei Xu have produced a complimentary piece to work featured last week (about how an ageing population won’t be a problem for housing demand until around 2045). In the paper highlighted today the researchers take a look at how urbanization in China may offset the effects of ageing in terms of overall […]
Zhenguo (Len) Lin (et al.) at the Florida International University (F.I.U.) Hollo School of Real Estate noticed studies on the relationship between a population’s age profile and housing demand were not only ambiguous but mostly related to developed economies. Moreover, these studies had taken place in the contexts of a more genteel ageing pattern than […]
There’s a lot to query in the analysis highlighted in the note reviewed today, but I’ll come to that later. First the fun part. Lisheng Yu (et al.) from the Sun Yat Sen University – School of Business wanted to know if Chinese Large Language Models (LLMs) were better at predicting stock price movement based […]
Mr. Dan Ciuriak, an economist formerly with the Canadian government now writing for his eponymous consulting firm takes a closer look at where the ‘free trade is a bad thing’ notion has come from in the U.S. In so doing he goes to the root of the misunderstanding (free trade is, mostly, not a bad […]
Since the first Trump tariffs were introduced against China America’s trade deficit has increased, both with China (depending on how you clock the data) and many other partners. However, the way America calculates the numbers shows a win in terms of a falling deficit with China. Whether the trade deficit with China has risen, or […]
Andrew J. Sinclair of the California Institute of Technology believes “..re-pegging the Hong Kong dollar to the renminbi is an inevitability.” He develops his argument from what he sees as a natural arc of progress in President Xi Jin Ping’s quest for National Security and the increasing use of the renminbi as a settlement currency. […]
Tian Ding at the School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (et al.) wondered if an analysis of southbound (i.e. China money into Hong Kong stocks) fund flow via the stock connect program had predictive ability? Northbound flows have been extensively studied to see how ‘smart money’ affects stock prices in […]
The paper looked over today from Peikai Li (et al.) from the Leeds University Business School introduces the concept of SUGAR or Stealth Use [At work] of Generative AI Resources. For a number of reasons employees (and not a few academics it’s also noted!) are using generative AI stealthily. It may be they fear jobs […]
From about 1996 the world’s largest lenders to poor countries realized forgiveness was the only way out. So they put together an initiative called the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) plan. In short they ruled off existing obligations and made new help conditional on reforms. Of 39-HIPC countries 37 made the cut and debt levels […]
In the last 20-years G20 EMs have rocketed and become a much bigger component of the global economic dynamic. To remind, they are: Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey. None though has been more influential or become more important than China and the paper highlighted today, a Working […]